26/03/2024
DEBT RESTRUCTURING
By Alexander Nkosi
To appreciate what debt restructuring will do to our economy, compare 2022 and 2024 budgets:
2022 BUDGET
▪︎Total budget- K172.9 billion
▪︎Domestic revenue- K98.9 billion
▪︎Borrowing- K72.3 billion
▪︎Debt Service- K78.7 billion
2024 BUDGET
▪︎Total budget- K177.9 billion
▪︎Domestic revenue- K141 billion
▪︎Borrowing- K33.3 billion
▪︎Debt Service- K38.9 billion
ANALYSIS
In 2022 we budgeted for full debt service whereas in 2024 we did not budget for the debt that has now been restructured. In 2024, the allocation to debt service has reduced by K39.8 billion compared to 2022. This in turn has led to borrowing going down from K72.3 billion in 2022 to K33.3 billion in 2024, a reduction of K39 billion. Given this analysis, the benefits of debt restructuring are:
1. It releases money from debt service which can then be channelled to CDF, agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, energy and mining.
2. It reduces the pressure to borrow. As seen from 2022 budget, we planned to borrow heavily while allocating more to debt service. However, in 2024 borrowing has significantly gone down.
3. Increased access to grants and concessional borrowing. Now that we have struck debt restructuring deals with both official bilateral creditors and external bondholders, we expect more grants and while borrowing will mostly be on concessional terms (long grade period, low interest rates and long repayment period).
4. Debt restructuring also brings stability and predictability to our economy which is key to attracting increased local and foreign investments.
CONCLUSION
While debt restructuring is the first important step to economic reconstruction and comes with all the benefits highlighted above, what happens to our economy will largely depend on how we use this 'breathing space' we get.
