15/04/2026
𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 #𝟳
Week of March 30 to April 3
PRICE
Domestic black pepper prices remained stable throughout the week, ranging between BRL 27.80 and BRL 27.50/kg. In the international market, FOB indications ranged from USD 6,100 to USD 6,150 per ton. However, trading activity was limited due to the Easter holiday.
In the currency market, the Brazilian real strengthened significantly, with the U.S. dollar declining from BRL 5.23 at the beginning of the week to BRL 5.16 at Thursday’s close (April 2).
WEATHER AND PRODUCTIVITY
Following technical field visits conducted by our team in the regions of Espírito Santo and Bahia, a downward production trend was identified for the crop originating from the previous flowering (locally known as “Bonga” or safrinha). Excessive heat, combined with poor pollination conditions, resulted in uneven spike development (“partially filled spikes”) and low fruit set rates. As a result, supply from this specific cycle is expected to be negatively impacted.
Nevertheless, optimism remains for the main crop at the end of the year. Current prospects are highly promising, as well-managed Brazilian plantations are undergoing a new flowering under favorable climatic conditions, supported by adequate rainfall.
A key point of attention in the sector is the strong expansion of planted areas, with nurseries reporting 100% sales of produced seedlings, as previously noted. This could create expectations of future oversupply. However, field-based technical assessments indicate that much of this expansion has been unstructured and driven by inexperienced new entrants. According to our team, management errors among these producers are leading to high plant mortality rates, reduced crop longevity, and yields below their potential.
HIGHLIGHT
Attention to the international geopolitical scenario—particularly the conflict in the Middle East—remains high. One of the main concerns at this stage is not directly related to black pepper commercialization, but rather to the agricultural inputs market.
According to a report by Veja Negócios, Brazil imports approximately 85% of the fertilizers it consumes. The Middle East accounts for the largest share of global urea exports—around 20 million tons per year—representing slightly more than one-third of total seaborne trade of the product, according to consultancy Argus Media. Iran plays a significant role in this market, accounting for approximately 11% of globally traded urea and 5% of ammonia, according to consultancy StoneX.
Source: https://veja.abril.com.br/economia/os-5-maiores-riscos-para-o-brasil-com-a-escalada-da-guerra-no-ira/
n black pepper producing regions, a significant increase in fertilizer prices is already being observed, along with delivery delays and limited access to certain products, resulting in a tightening supply environment.
We will continue to closely monitor the market and its key developments.
