09/12/2025
I’ve spoken to quite a few people about my thoughts on the Pokémon market and how it moves, and honestly it feels pretty predictable once you see the pattern. Or at least, that’s my opinion. While building this app, presenting fair and accurate pricing reports while being mindful of the differences in private, online and store sales had me scrutinising all of these aspects of the collecting of Pokémon.
Anyway, as it appears very few other pundits in the gaming retail scene are ready to put their money where their mouth is, this is how I see it.
Every hot set drops → chase cards shoot up on pure hype → everyone FOMOs in → supply eventually catches up (reprints, people ripping cases, etc.) → prices tank 20-40% pretty quick → things chill out and find a floor → then the proper high-end stuff (SIRs, Moonbreons, nice vintage, PSA 10s) slowly creeps back up over the next couple years as the dust settles and real collectors hold them. Rinse and repeat every era.
Take Umbreon VMAX alt art (215/203 Evolving Skies) - tanked $155 last month to $2063 TCGplayer, bang in that correction phase but floor forming. Or Rayquaza VMAX alt art (218/203 same set) surging to $701, proper climb starting. New Prismatic Evolutions Dragapult ex SIR (165/131)? $93 and already declining from launch hype - textbook. We’re bang in the middle of the “tank and chill” phase for most of the 2023-2025 product.
Also, pricing platforms are wild once you compare them properly:
TCGplayer (US) is almost always the cheapest “real” price because it’s a massive pool of sellers all undercutting each other. This is basically the truest gauge of what something is actually worth day-to-day.
eBay UK? Consistently 20-50% higher, sometimes stupid money, because the pool of cards is tiny compared to the US and postage is fixed high. £15-£40 shipping on a single gets baked into the price real quick. E.g. that Umbreon alt? $2063 TCG = true value, but UK eBay solds pushing £2400-£2800 total, easy with the premium.
Everywhere else (PriceCharting, Collectr, whatever) just averages those two together plus a few mad outlier sales and random beat-up copies, so the numbers look lower or weirder than reality.
End of the day: if you want to know what something is properly worth right now, check TCGplayer Market. If you’re selling in the UK, look at recent eBay UK solds and add a cheeky bit because that’s what people here are actually paying.
That’s it. Market’s not dead, not imploding, just growing up a bit. Normal service will resume in 12-18 months when the good stuff starts climbing again. Short sighted and probably newcomers not used to the long game will rush to sell and those with an investors mind will scoop them up.
This is a very standard market economy. It’s almost boringly simple.
